Productivity Rebound: Why Now?

(1) Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities. (2) Disorderly world. (3) Iran is between Iraq and a hard place. (4) From community organizers to dealmakers. (5) Trump threatens more tariffs on China to close the trade deal. (6) If productivity is making a comeback, as we expect, potential output growth is higher and NAIRU is lower than CBO estimates. (7) Fed officials, focusing on “transient” disinflation story, may be missing secular one again. (8) Tight labor markets may be triggering faster productivity growth. (9) The “productivity-compensation gap” is a statistical mirage.