Tossing a Curveball

(1) A hedged warning about rising recession risk in updated Fed study. (2) Recession risk up from 14% last summer to 50% now. (3) Then again, maybe the yield curve is forecasting monetary policy more than anything else. (4) Credit crunches cause recessions, not inverted yield curves! (5) A false positive signal, again? (6) Guess what the yield curve is predicting the Fed will do next: Nothing! (7) Buffett likes companies that buy back their shares. (8) We agree, as long as they don’t offset that with employee stock compensation.