Patient Powell’s Put

(1) No recession in GDPNow model. (2) Credit market indicators say Fed is done tightening. (3) There was a December “flash recession” in Fed district surveys, led by drop in new orders. (4) A few leading indicators flashing yellow. (5) Labor market still booming. (6) Trucking indicators still barreling along. (7) Powell turns from hawk to dove. (8) Pressing the pause button. (9) Fed going from “gradual” to “flexible.” (10) The Dow Vigilantes have gotten the Powell Put for now. (11) Powell concedes that financial markets matter. (12) Movie review: “Vice” (-).