Slowdown Ahead

(1) Bullish earnings and bearish guidance. (2) Nevertheless, analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth are 9.4% in 2019 and 10.2% in 2020. (3) We are projecting 4.9% and 5.3% comparable growth rates. (4) Revenues growth rates are bound to slow to 4.0% trend. (5) Profit margin very unlikely to move to new record highs, as implied by analysts’ revenues and earnings projections. (6) Crude oil is dropping, and back in sync with other declining commodity prices and stronger dollar. (7) Another sign of global slowdown on the demand side. (8) On the supply side, American and Canadian crude output is soaring.