Dancing with the Stars

(1) The yield curve question gets a brief mention at Jackson Hole. (2) It may not be different this time, but the yield curve has yet to actually invert. (3) What’s really different this time is that the federal funds rate is 2%, while the comparable ECB and BOJ rates are slightly negative. (4) The 2-year Treasury is predicting a 2.6% fed funds rate in a year. (5) Italy’s new euroskeptic government may frustrate ECB’s hopes of normalizing policy. (6) How do you say “bond vigilantes” in Italian? (7) The chairman’s first speech: slow and steady. (8) Powell rejects navigating by the stars. (9) Academic portion of Jackson Hole was intellectually interesting, without much practical usefulness.