(1) Google Trends shows flattening “yield curve” is trending higher. (2) 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread close to zero. (3) Hard to argue with success. (4) Yield curve spread is just one of 10 leading indicators. (5) Credit cycle has yet to enter crunch phase. (6) The bond market has gone global, and near-zero bond yields in Germany and Japan are making US bonds awfully attractive. (7) The Bond Vigilantes have been kept in check by the major central banks. (8) Another Fed Model: This one tracks a near-term yield spread, which is showing just a 14% chance of recession. (9) Why are S&P 500 revenue estimates so strong? (10) A very brief primer on quantum computers.
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