Protectionist Fever

(1) Beach tug of war: Yardeni vs Clinton and Patterson. (2) Trump stoking protectionist fever. (3) Bullish for the dollar. (4) Bearish for commodity currencies. (5) Even the Stay Home stocks could be hurt by a trade war, but less so than Go Global ones. (6) Bond market sends conflicting signals on recession outlook. (7) Yield curve turning more bearish on economy, but credit quality spread isn’t. (8) Fed officials may have to taper monetary normalization if trade policy turns more abnormal. (9) FANGs grow by disrupting other business models, but could be ripe for profit-taking. (10) Lots of hot spots in US stock market, though protectionist fever could cause occasional chills.