Lots of Commotion

(1) What’s worse: a flattening yield curve or rising bond yields? (2) By raising federal funds rate, Fed is signaling confidence in economy and storing up ammo to fight next recession. (3) The Fed is on top of the curve, neither behind nor ahead of it. (4) Bond yield target for rest of year: 3.00-3.50%. (5) Inflationary expectations rising along with oil and other commodity prices. (6) Despite flat US yield curve, no recession in global economy according to commodity prices. (7) No recession in credit quality spread or LEI. (8) German and Japanese bond yields remain near zero as ECB and BOJ balance sheets continue to swell. (9) Peak oil demand vs peak oil supply. (10) Remarkable strength in oil prices given soaring US and Canadian oil output. (11) Movie Review: “The Death of Stalin” (+ +).