Rebounding & Submerging

(1) Encouraging rebound in CRB index. (2) Global exports and production remained on uptrends through November. (3) Gold tends to show the trend of industrial commodity prices. (4) Petroleum demand slowdown in the US led by heating oil due to warm weather, not weaker economy. (5) IMF & BIS have been warning that Fed tightening would mean trouble for EMEs. (6) BIS lecture sees links between credit, commodities, & currencies. (7) Dollar debt of foreigners has stopped growing. (8) Oil & dollar as “risk amplifiers.” (9) EME dollar debt is a known unknown. (10) IMF & BIS give Fed conflicting advice.