US Dollar, Inflation, & Earnings

(1) Is there a relationship between the dollar and expected inflation? (2) Fed tracking TIPS yield spread as expected inflation measure, which is falling recently. (3) Anchor aweigh. (4) TIPS measure in US actually reflecting deflationary forces in Japan and Eurozone. (5) There may be a simpler story. (6) Either way, the Fed is likely to normalize monetary policy very gradually. (7) Or else it might be either “one and done” or “none and done.” (8) Low price inflation keeping a lid on wage inflation. (9) Dollar may take center stage during Q3 earnings season. (10) Usually, strong dollar and weak commodity pricing not good for earnings. (11) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Transportation.