The Great Moderation II

(1) Two alternative scenarios. (2) Is New Normal the return of the “Great Moderation?” (3) Bernanke’s remarkable speech. (4) Higher P/E for New Normal or Old Normal? (5) Forward P/E slightly exceeds historical average. (6) Other P/Es are in fairly-valued territory too. (7) Tobin’s q ratio is 1.0. (8) Great Recession II? (9) A list of excesses.