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Executive Summary: Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a
Executive Summary: The Chinese government has unveiled a wide-ranging plan to lift its economic growth, this time by propping up consumption instead of trade. Jackie summarizes the many diverse initiatives to put more power in the pockets of Chinese consumers.
Executive Summary: With the US stock market underperforming many international equities markets, we’ve been warming to a “Go Global” stance—though we don’t advise a major shift given the possibility of a punishing global trade war. Today, Eric assesses the stock
The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.
Short-form takes on current market events.
When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: “I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there’s flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but
The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February’s PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren’t
Today’s batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest
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